Bend Economy Bulletin Board

5 to 20 times a week I evaluate a property somewhere in Central Oregon. Thought posting my estimate of market depreciation/appreciation for that specific area might be interesting to you. I'll give the street name, approx. age and compass location only to keep the subject anonymous.


Woodridge Lane NE Bend 30+ years old
In determining market value change, I used 6 months ending 11/21/09 ($88.06/sq ft) vs. 6 months ending 05/21/10 ($80.25/ sq ft), within a 1 mile radius. Comp property values decreased 9.7 % with 10 sales occurring 6 months ending 11/15/09 and 4 sales occurring 6 months ending 05/21/10.

Robert, you seem like a nice guy, but you’ve bought into a very dumb concept i.e. that a real estate sales can be boiled down the price per square foot

Thanks for the compliment! Interesting interpretation of my little report. Please be advised I have bought into absolutely nothing but my own evaluations which span much more than just one single metric and I advise anyone planning to buy, sell or just kabitzing to do the same. I can't keep track of the many ways people develop to obtain value. The common denominator in just about every case is the method used serves their own agenda whether it be a buyer, seller or Real Estate agent etc. etc.

You are right about price per square foot, it is not the absolute best way to determine value but within the correct context it is one of the paths to arrive at the destination. If you took 3 paths and all 3 brought you to the same destination you could feel pretty confident you landed in the right place. If all 3 brought you to a different destination then further head scratching and pencil sharpening would be in order. Yes you are absolutely right, apples should be compared to apples.

To be clear, the only intent of this post is to give a quck glimpse into what I see going on in a particular neighborhood at a given point in time. I am finding pockets of improvement from time to time and thought sharing my findings here might be helpful.

I would suggest that if you are going to advise clients on what is happening to the value of their home that you look at sales of comparable properties rather than applying a magic price per foot

Thanks for bringing this up as I meant to be more specific with my explanation of how this is done
Per establised guidelines of certain clients:
GLA +/- 20%
Lot size +/- 50%
Age +/- 20years
All comps within same neighborhood or 1 mile
Architectural desing same or similar
All sales within 1 day to 6 months
We of course strive to keep all comps as close as possible to the subject in every metric and expand outward as needed. If we end up with a mixed bag of fruit becuase of lack of comparables then we make adjustments. Once the above has been accomplished, I compare price per sq ft from one period to another to give a glimps of wehat has happened to value in that neighborhood.

Thanks for pointing out my lack of clarity and I hope the explanations provided give y'all a better insight into how this little report came about.

The number of distressed sales varies as well as the number of distressed listings. Sometimes all comps will be distressed and sometimes none of them are distressed, but are almost always a mixture of distressed and non distressed and varies by neighborhood, time period etc. My primary focus is on comparing properties that are as close as possible in as many physical characteristics as possible. The type of sale tends to naturally follow what is happening in the neighborhood and/or time period.

City View Dr 20+ years old 3500+ sq ft, .66 acre lot

This should be a bank owned listing soon. Should list under $600K????

In determining market value change, I used 6 months ending 11/27/09 ($171.64/sq ft) vs 6 months ending 05/27/10 ($152.84/sq ft), within 1 mile. Comp property values decreased 11% with 4 sales occurring 6 months ending 11/27/09 and 5 sales occurring 6 months ending 05/27/10.

Hard to compare apples to apples in this neighborhood so consider this an educated guess.

2825 NE Canyon Park Dr. 34 years old mostly original, 0.18 acre lot

This will be a bank owned listing I should have.

Estimated list price $110,000 to $120,000

In determining market value change, I used 6 months ending 11/28/09 ($96.75/sq ft) vs 6 months ending 05/28/10 ($92.12/sq ft), within 1 mile. Comp property values decreased 4.8% with 18 sales occurring 6 months ending 11/28/09 and 19 sales occurring 6 months ending 05/28/10.

Wide swings in age, condition, neighborhood attributes etc. so again not exact comparisons but still gives a good idea of of the market in the area.

A few more spot checks:

NE Oak Pl Redmond 1300+ sq ft. 10 years old. 06/02/09 compared to 06/02/10. 6 month sales average for each date.
In determining market value change, I used 6 months ending 06/02/09 ($104.86/sq ft) vs 6 months ending 06/02/10 ($82.28/sq ft), within the neighborhood. Comp property values decreased 21.5% with 10 sales occurring 6 months ending 06/02/09 and 25 sales occurring 6 months ending 06/02/10.

NW 22nd St Redmond 2200+ sq ft 7 years old. 05/31/09 compared to 05/31/10. 6 months sales average for each date.
In determining market value change, I used 6 months ending 05/31/09 ($84.51/sq ft) vs 6 months ending 05/31/10 ($80.05/sq ft), within the neighborhood. Comp property values decreased 5.3% with 3 sales occurring 11 months ending 05/31/09 and 11 sales occurring 6 months ending 05/31/10.

Mountain Oak Ln Bend 1700+ sq ft 5 years old. 11/30/09 compared to 05/31/10 . 6 months sales average for each date.
In determining market value change, I used 6 months ending 11/30/09 ($108.07/sq ft) vs 6 months ending 05/31/10 ($97.61/sq ft), within the neighborhood. Comp property values decreased 9.7% with 17 sales occurring 6 months ending 11/30/09 and 15 sales occurring 6 months ending 05/30/10.

NW 15th St Redmond 1800+ sq ft 18 yeras old. 01/01/09 compared to 06/01/09. 6 months sales average for each date.
In determining market value change, I used 6 months ending 12/01/09 ($91.34/sq ft) vs 6 months ending 06/01/10 ($80.01/sq ft), within the neighborhood. Comp property values decreased -12.4% with 12 sales occurring 11 months ending 12/01/09 and 13 sales occurring 6 months ending 06/01/10.

NE Brandon Ct Bend 1600+ sq ft 13 years old. 11/28/09 compared to 05/28/10. 6 months sales average for each date.
11/28/09: $102.00/sq ft 13 sales. 05/28/10: $85.3/sq ft 12 sales. Sales average -16.3%

Snow Goose Rd area code: 97707 15 years old 1200+ sq ft, 0.5 acre lot

In determining market value change, I used 6 months ending 06/06/09 ($115.71/sq ft from 7 sales) vs 6 months ending 06/06/10 ($92.16/sq ft from 6 sales), within the neighborhood. Comp property values decreased 20.4% between 06/06/09 and 06/06/10.

Huckleberry Pl, SW Bend, 4 years old, 2999 sq ft. Should be an REO listing of mine soon. Estimate to hit the market somewhere between $270K and $310K.

In determining market value change, I used 6 months ending 06/06/09 ($116.25/sq ft from 19 sales) vs 6 months ending 06/06/10 ($101.79/sq ft from 15 sales), within the neighborhood. Comp property values decreased 20.4% between 06/06/09 and 06/06/10.