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Editor's Note: Michael O’Hanlon was in Afghanistan earlier this month and is the author of the new ebook, The Wounded Giant: America’s Armed Forces in an Age of Austerity. You can read more from him on the Global Public Square.
By Michael O'Hanlon – Special to CNN
The death of Kim Jong-Il, all things considered, is good news. While the demise of any human being is not really something to celebrate, he had far too much blood on his hands to merit much mourning. His nuclear weapons activities, his stewardship over mass starvation in North Korea in the 1990s and then finally the cold-blooded murder of 50 South Koreans in two incidents last year stand out in my mind among his most despicable “accomplishments.”
To be sure, things can always get worse. North Korea could, with bad luck and bad decisions, collapse or attack South Korea. So vigilance is needed on the part of all parties, as North Korea’s leaders try to form a new government, presumably under Kim Jong-un. Working with South Korea and Japan, as well as China, we should send out messages of reassurance and underscore that, of course, we have no intention of trying to complicate or exploit the situation.
More broadly, even while keeping up his guard and remaining sober about the prospects for change, President Obama should reiterate his inaugural address language about how the United States remains ready to reach out our hand to any extremist regime that would unclench its own fist. Such language was unfortunately met with North Korea’s second nuclear test back in 2009, when originally articulated. But perhaps this time it could be different.
There is no reason to dismiss the possibility out of hand. Obama has managed, over three years, to show that he is not naive about the prospects for such rapprochement with rogue regimes, yet at the same time is open to new possibilities as with this year’s outreach to Burma. Perhaps the same thing will be possible with North Korea, eventually.
Back in 2003, George Washington University Professor Mike Mochizuki and I wrote a book called Crisis on the Korean Peninsula that laid out a broad agenda for the U.S.-North Korea relationship and the six-party talks. A few years later, now-Assistant Secretary of State for Asia Kurt Campbell and I reiterated the basic argument in a chapter in our book, Hard Power: The New Politics of National Security.
In both cases, without trying to raise false expectations, we sketched out what might be termed a “Vietnam model” for North Korea reform. It would go beyond denuclearization to include, among other things, economic restructuring within the DPRK. Should Pyongyang be interested, and take meaningful and verifiable steps towards broad reform, the outside world could gradually respond, first with a lifting of sanctions and increase of humanitarian aid, and gradually with greater economic development assistance over time.
It is worth laying out such a vision, rather than communicating only a simple tactical willingness to talk along with vague promises of a possibly improved future relationship, in coming days and weeks. Usually Washington is far too tactical and unimaginative in talking about its vision for the Korean peninsula and this is a good time to be more creative and bold. Nothing is likely to change fast, but a young North Korean leader may be impressionable. And not only Vietnam, but also China, have moved in this sort of reformist direction before from within communist systems. There may soon be hope for North Korea too.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Michael O'Hanlon.
Little is known about the heir apparent Kim Jong-un, so it's difficult to say whether "the young North Korean leader may be impressionable" or not. No doubt he's still too young to carry on the dynastic legacy of the country his grandfather founded in 1948. He will have to rely on advisors of his deceased father, who are die-hard regimists. We'll see when he will show his true colours. It remains to be seen whether the teenage years he allegedly had spent in the German-speaking Steinhoelzli school in Berne from 1998 to 2000 would enhance his understanding of democracy. He was 14/15 then and attended the school under a different name. He apparently loved to play basketball, watch action movies and always had a good laugh.
@ j.von hettlingen
II doubt that 3 years of Swiss schooling had any difference on Kim Jong-un. He was most likely more interested in playing video games then understanding the value of western style democracy or even the model of Swiss regional style of democracy.
Kim Jong-un will continue the path his grandfather began 60+ years ago. He is already a demigod in the eyes of the people of North Korea. Kim Jong-un lived always a very privileged live. Why would he surrender any of this? He has been brought up to follow in the steps of the Kim dynasty.
Big brother China, has no interest in let North Korea fail because China needs North Korea as a potential bargaining chip against the USA.
I'm sure if the Rockafellers and kissingers of the world play their cards right, they may be able to offer him a pretty girl, and he will be manipulated, just every other world leader. The only thing that changes is the puppet and the year.
He actually attended high school in Beijing, and Beijing University, Department of International Relation, not Swiss School as some Internet story-tellers told.
ACTUALLY... He attended A Swiss school in Berne, under the assumed name Pak Un.
so what do we do when the new ruler of the north dosn't want to go along with the program we invade just becaus we don't get get uor way throw a tempertantrum like allways wonder why they have taken all the jobs factories away frome us hhhhhhmmmmmmmmm whats next
Run-on sentences devoid of punctuation... I simply don't get it. I see this all the time, here, on facebook, youtube, myspace (RIP), etc. Is it some sort of cultural phenomenon I missed out on? I can understand poor grammar as a reason for misuse of punctuation, but to do away with it altogether? What's up with that?
Would you translate? Korean is really difficult...
Would North Korea be the next Vietnam? Unlikely!
Nobody wants a Vietnam-style war on the peninsula. If North Korea staged one, it would be suicidal.
China prefers to keep the status quo. Others in the region welcome a future without nuclear threat.
The writer is referring to current day Vietnam which has been successfully transitioning to the current Chinese type (Totalitarian) Socialism/Capitalist hybrid.
VIETNAM IS NOT A STUPID COUNTRY . AND VIETNAM IS THE CHILDREN OF THE BUDDHA HAND AND VIETNAM IS THE NEPHEW OF THE TAOISM RELIGIOUS ALSO , AMEN . MO PHAT .
you are am fool. All of those east asian nations are back waters, and we need to leave them along, because they will end eachother soon enough.
Vietnam is about as backwards as a horse-drawn carriage in the express lane of a major motorway. That is why the U.S didn't have any reservations about bombing it into another dimension...Can you say, AGENT ORANGE!!
I agree, because the Vietnamese have more common sense and far more practical then follow blindly any ideology.
Contrary to what Michael O'Hanlon says, the death of anybody is not "good news" including Kim Jong Il! What we should have done long ago was to establish diplomatic relations with North Korea and just ignore the right-wing, anti-Communist fanatics in Washington!
This man killed thousands. I am glad he is dead. I would call his death "great news." P.S. I am tired of reporters referring to
evil, evil people as "gentlemen."
You watch too much western propaganda Linda..What about Iraq, Afghanistan, libya etc, etc..do you have something to say about it..
I have something to say about them. We should cut all aid to all nations east of greese, except india and austrialia, and also all aid to any nations who trade with them. People need to remember that the american oil reserves make all of the arab oil look like a bucket next to ta pool. We need tot let isreal, palistine, syria, lebanon, afganistan, pakistan, iran iraq S aribia Oman ect rot and fester. Without the americans none of these countries could survive. Like france, they hate america out of sheer jelously.
North Korea has no oil to fight over like Vietnam and Malysia does.
Ahh....interesting. I neglected to follow the money on this one (with regards to Vietnamese and Malaysian oil deposits). You would think that stability in this region is in everyone's interest (again following the money) except those who would profit from war/fear mongering.
you can not make animals who hate eachother stable, it does not work. Let then exterminate themselves, then we can go in after and collect the oil, by the way merry christmas.
Quite true Lawrence, quite true. In fact, North Korea has few resources so it is relaying on nuclear energy to produce it's electricity in the future. This the right-wing news media will never tell us!
So the nuclear bombs North Korea detonated in the past produced electricity?
China and Viet Nam lost a "GOOD and LOYAL" friend in the good faith of dictatorship. Rest In Whiskey (RIW) and Rest In Movies (RIM) instead RIP Mr. Kim makes the world ILL.
Mr. Heinz China and Vietnam went to war in 1979. Recently there have been tensions between Vietnam and China over territorial rights in the South China Sea where gunfire has been exchanged between the two countries. Vietnam has looked to the US to see that China does not dominate this territory. Vietnam and China are harldly allies at this point in time.
Kim Jong-Un is too young to exert complete control, and he does not have his father's (or grandfather's) skills in dealing with the Chinese. Above all the Chinese want stability and the continuation of a buffer state between China and South Korea. The most likely go-forward scenario, therefore, is that the Chinese will continue to prop up the regime and use extreme financial pressure to try and control North Korea, using Kim Jong-Un as a puppet ruler.
Kim Jong Il's timely death should be North Koreans best opportunity to revamp their entire political system. It is the time for North Koreans to free themselves from further dictatorial rule. A long overdue ' Arab Spring' is needed to purge the old military generals, croonies and other relatives of KJI .
Reunification with South Korea is another possibility because a new North Kore would badly need South Korea's cooperation and financial assistance to rebuild it's social and political system. A one country, 2 systems could be adopted.
The other scenario is China's possible economic aid to NK could be influential in convincing KJI's son Kim Jong Un to follow Burma's footstep in making an important change that would ensure some sort of freedom for North Korea and allow trade and enterprise to resume freely. So that millions of North Koreans would no longer depend on foreign food aid forever.
Do you think that South Korea want to reunite with North Korea and take care of all poor North Koreans???
Yes the South wants reunification. Not because of economics.; but because of reuniting with their families. Those displaced by the war. Those who were kidnapped by the North. That is why. Whether Northern or Southern they are all Korean.
John, Burma's military rulers are still in charge. This new democratic reform you are seeing there is just an illussion to avoid from being overthrown. They will still be in power. The answer with North Korea lies with China. Do they want North Korea to reform and open up to the West or be psychological guessing game for the United States? I think China wants the latter.
Another thing John those in the North Korean military are so brainwashed; an "Arab Spring" would last 12 minutes given that and their plain clothes secret service division. It would be a massacre.
If peace is not maintained inside North Korea, we could see a worst case scenario in which the entire country could be turned upside down by riots, civil war and even attacks on South Korea by ex militarymen. This would result in human sufferings like starvation , and resulting in a huge exodus of refugees at South Korea's doorstep.
Kim Jung Un is unlikely to hold power for too long. Unless his uncles and aunties welt their influence and force to support his presidency. But I dont expect KJU to be able to remain in control for long. Someone in his family could right now be waiting to push him of his power seat.
Buddha will be helping NK Young Leader to do the right things for his country
Max, Koreans practice Cofucianism
Sorry Koreans practice Confucianism
Don't believe in miracle, boys. The people there were brainwashed for three quarters of a century. They do not see what we see. And their big brothers are right there. So move on, whatever they do is their own business. Just hope that that irrational regime won't unleash a barrage of artillery to South Korea to celebrate the transition to a new dear leader.
That depends on china Comminist. In some aspect VN communist was lucky to unite two part before China communist would stop "liberation war".
HELL NO DOG , VIETNAM IS THE COUNTRY OF THE BUDDHA CHILD AND THE NEPHEW OF THE TAOISM RELIGIOUS , AMEN , MO PHAT .
WHAT COME ARE AROUND MUST GOING BACK AROUND TO ONESELF ANAL FULL OF HUMAN WASTE AND URINE KARMA WORLD DOGGY , AMEN . MO PHAT .
JUST BY TAKING THE TIME OUT TO SAW IT CLEARLY ON THE SUN ARE ROUND AND THE MOON ARE ROUND AND THE MOTHER HELL AND HEAVENLY EARTH ARE ROUND ALSO AND SO IS NOT THAT TELLING TO ONESELF THERE ARE KARMA JUST WAITING TO ONESELF CAUSE ALL THE DUM ASSSSSS AFFECT TO UP TO THREE GENERATION DOG WORLD , AMEN , MO PHAT .
THE SUN THE MOON THE HELL AND HEAVENLY MOTHER LAND EARTH FULL OF KARMA WAITING FROM ONESELF CREATING ALL THE CAUSE AND AFFECT TO MAKE ONESELF MORE SUFFERING AND THAN DIE OUT , AMEN , MO PHAT .
ONE WHO BELIEVED IN KARMA WILL PASS AWAY LIKE THE NATURE WAY OF TAO THE REAL WAY OF LIFE SHOULD BE , AMEN .
TO THE ONE WHO DOES NOT BELIEVE IN KARMA ARE MOSTLY PASS AWAY IN THE TRAGIC WAY OF DOG WORLD LIFE , AMEN , MO PHAT .
HUMAN FORM BEING ARE GETTING DUMMER AND DUMMER IN THIS NOW DAILY DOOG WORLD , AMEN , MO PHAT .
Uh oh... I smell another "nation building" pitch on the backs of the American middle class again.
Not likely that the Hermit Kingdom will follow the way of Vietnam or China any time soon. Neither Vietnam nor China has kept itself hermetically sealed from the outside world as North Korea has been since the rise to power of Kim Il-Sung.
O'Hanlon's premise here is an interesting one.
In the case of Vietnam, Hanoi, in the mid-1980's had the benefit of a few brilliant economists who had a hand in the construction of the Party's 1986 "Doi Moi" economic platform. The key architect was Dr. Nguyen Xuan Oanh, who came out of retirement as a former capitalist central banker under the defeated South Vietnamese regime and managed to turned himself into the Communist party's favorite economist. I knew Dr. Oanh, a Harvard-educated economist. He was even South Vietnam's Prime Minister for a few turbulent months in the coup-ridden 1960s. Somehow, after the fall of Saigon and eight months of house arrest, Oanh managed to persuade the communists that he was a technocrat and a patriot who had stayed on to serve his country. Rehabilitation allowed Oanh to become the architect of Vietnam's "Doi Moi" economic reform platform in 1986. However, it was the combination of his education and prior government leadership that gave Dr. Oanh the political firepower with the Communist Party in Hanoi to listen and follow his direction for the future of the country.
So where is North Korea's Dr. Oanh? This is the interesting piece of the puzzle needed to answer the question that Michael Hanlon poses. While it is early for North Korea's own "Dr. Oanh" to emerge, the seeds for a Oanh-type economic reform leadership or expertise in North Korea already exist in the form of 2 groups: (1) during the 1990's and prior, a number of North Korean elites were educated in economics in Australian universities before Australia shut down its North Korean visa program; and (2) there are a number of young, North Korean refugee types that are currently studying economics in Seoul, the U.S. and the U.K. who are preparing themselves to assist in the North Korean "Doi Moi" in the future.
At this time of transition in North Korea, Hanlon has posed a glimmer of hope that is not all that far-fetched...just courageous to lay out.
Thanks for your insight but the two countries were not the same situation. The North Korea has been under China's influences for decades since Korea's war whereas Vietnam and China have been fighting for thousand years and they were hardly friends for a short time period. It would be very unlikely that the North Korean would become the Chinese's enemy in the future. The Vietnamese has already made their own decision with the 1980's doi moi program but the N. Korean has to rely on the Chinese for their economic survival, Unless they reunite with the S Korea, the similarity between Vietnam and N Korea would not be likely to happen.
It's such a pleasure to see herein not only a rare intelligent discourse but also intimate knowledge of the driving forces involved. I should perhaps note that VN was suffering terribly under the U.S' sanction at the time, and VN's Communist Party in general was more pragmatic than ideological (which is what Ho CHi Minh was). This is not to take anything away from Dr. Oanh (whom I admire), but the situation was ripe for "Doi Moi". It was very fortunate that there was Dr. Oanh to implement it. Besides the question of where is N. Korean's Dr. Oanh, one has to consider where the ruling party stands on the ideological spectrum, Cheers.
In hindsight, the US made a mess out of Vietnam and Korea. It was pointless. Both Vietnam and Korea should have been left to their own.
Real change in North Korea has to come from within.
End of Cold War happened.Why are the Koreas not united ? This article is the usual spin/b.s. of the Ministry of Propaganda.One country can have all the nuclear weapons to defend themselves , but another can not so we starve them-what inhumanity ! We are borrowing money from China, a neighboring Communist country, to keep our troops in South Korea so that the 1% already rich can get richer and we cut SS for our elderly to help keep us in endless wars-it is criminal in my book.
are you a simplton? A free nation can have the nukes it wants, a commie totalarian nation cannot. It is that simple. The 2 nations are not one, because curde uneducated monsters in the north believe the drivle the red party spouts and they obey. When they pull there heads out of there butts and realiize they need to get on a democratic system, then they can build nukes too. Untill then they can cry me a f-ing river.
It would be nice if North Korea transitioned to a Vietnam or China type society BUT with the people so oppressed for such a long time (60 + years), any hint of easing would probably bring about an uprising as occured in Romania and East Germany. The rulers in those nations were summarily executed.
As an aside, I was watching a lecture given by BR Myers, who wrote "The Cleanest Race", which is a sociological/historical view of the ideology of NK. He makes the point that the military is essentially the ONLY thing keeping the Kims in power, and a lynchpin of keeping domestic dissent down is the legitimacy from pursuing nuclear weapons. As he stated, "you can't bully [the regime] into committing political suicide, you can't give aid to make them commit political suicide, and you can't ask the Chinese to intervene so they commit political suicide."
Everything that is done in NK must be viewed through the eyes of those whose primary goal is to retain the status quo (i.e., in power and keeping the cognac flowing). Does dropping the nuclear weapons program cement their hold on power? No? Then it won't happen, period. If you give them aid, they won't really care because they've come to accept that privation is necessary for the continued struggle against the evil Americans. Also, any aid you give will be presented as the tribute of a servile American government unable to withstand the splendor of Great Leader, who even now must ration this food carefully to fend off American imperialism. This, by the way, was the domestic propaganda used to distribute aid given under the Clinton administration who tried a rapprochement. The scarier part is that, in every interview of defectors given, *they believed it.* Amongst the people that would lead any such internal revolution, there is no sign of heterodox thought. Change will come only when the ruling class brings it, and they have zero reason to do so, and the article doesn't give them a reason to commit political suicide.
Is there a solution? Maybe, but I am now convinced that it requires some sort of governmental transition and cultural change on par with denazification of Germany post WWII. And that will be an expensive, brutal, and ugly affair that will claim untold lives and inflict misery on a level not seen since that era.
why should america care about NK at all? let china do there worst to them, they (the chiniese) are on there way down as well.
You can't compare viet nam to north Korea,there is much freeDom in vn than anywhere since day one.
Dear Mr.Michael,
The murder of 50 south Koreans is standing out in your mind.
The murder of millions of people in Iraq ,Afghanistan and in Libya by the US and imperialist forces is not in your mind.
Then you must be a paid writer of imperialists
Thank you. Is this the best story this Imperialist could come up with. He shouldnt have been born.
Mr Han will continue on like his father. According to Cnn articles here he went along with the sinking of that South Korean ship and artillery strike against the South. As far as the Food Aid program what guarantee is there that the food will actually reach the North Korean people without monitoring it by the UN. What reassurance is there that North Korea won't go back to try to secure a nuclear device once the food, economic aid is delivered. All that aid just might go to the military.Of all of Kim Jong Il's sons; why was he selected? To continue on like his father. The US and South Korea must be cautious and dilligent! Nothing is going to change with North Korea with this new ruler.
So many "wanna be" intellectuals here pontificating on subjects they nothing about. Is it about oil, is it about fear mongering to make money off of weapons sales ... He went to school here, he went there.
Read the story for what is and move on with your lives instead of insulting others ... I doubt anyone here (except a very few) have the insight to respond with accuracy on this issue.
Bull's-eye, but that's unfortunately pretty much a given on these online rants. Every Neanderthal and his granny can espouse their poorly thought out feelings, and feel really really good about having had a say. F'in morons abound, in NK, USA, and here in SE Asia. Sad.
There is no excuse for all this weeping, except if these people all had a massive lobotomy. How can one weep for a cognac-gobbling monster, who sent dozens of innocent South Koreans on the Cheonan to their death, and then lied and threatened those who demanded justice with a "fire of death"? You tell me.
Just another place to send American jobs to.
This reporter is a devil. The west uses language such as "Dictator" to great a bad image and negative thoughts about a person. Kim Jong Il was a "Leader" who chose not to live the way we do. We eat chemicals that we believe are food, and everything about our lifestyle is unhealthy. It should be noted that it was the "United Nations" that imposed sanctions that starved the people of North Korea, it was not Kim Jong Il who starved his people. Everyone in North Korea is well taken care of, they have homes, they live in peace, it is our own leaders who stand in the way of their well being. It was our own county that helped to divide the great people of Korea. Our society preys on the people, profits off of silent murdering of its citizens through unhealthy lifestyles, miseducates us and conditions our minds through television and media, watches over our every move with GPS phones-drones-facebook-satellites-etc. North Korea does not treat their people the way we treat our own, we should be ashamed of ourselves. Leave North Korea alone and stop making false assumptions about a place you will never visit or live in.
The Soviet Union did also took part in dividing Korea as well. While we put Syngman Rhee as the president of Korea, the Soviet Red Army installed Kim Il-Sung as the "leader" of a "Communist" Korea that they envisioned. Because of that, the two areas, the "pro-Western" South and the "Communist" North fought each over for total control of all Korea. I really don't care about your so-called "Socialist" propaganda because North Korea does not even fit towards the definitions of a "Socialist' state. North Korea is a Stalinist degenerated workers' state that a single leader exploits the labor and minds of the common people for his own benefit. Stalinist systems such as the Soviet Union and North Korea are not really, in my opinion, real "socialist" systems. Sweden, Singapore, Norway, Denmark are "real" socialist states.
There's no way North Korea would become the next "Vietnam". Those who think about that are pretty much "naive". The regime there is much more cohesive than it is in Vietnam and China and they're not going to pick rationality or otherwise they'll have to abandon the Juche ideology that North Korea has fostered for over 6 decades as the basis for the state. Kim Jong-un is no Deng Xiaoping and even if he wants to be the next Deng Xiaoping or Nguyen Van Linh, he'll have to face with his mentors and the conservative party elders and military leaders, because the party elders will do all they can to preserve Kim Jong-il's legacy. A free market economy is something that Kim Jong-un would be attracted to, but not to the party elders and military
I scoff at the reporters who attempt very naively report the socio-political-cultural news ref. to N. Korea.
Westerners and even majority of S. Koreans 'just don't get it'.
How fickle the human memories are where we forget the past and in this case, repeat the same historical mistakes over and over again. It is getting tedious.
And having reporters here announcing to the world their own opinions is disgusting.
I think the only peple who 'GET IT' are those who made Team America, the movie. You just do not write an very angry letter when these lunatic regmies do something wrong and you do not attempt to appease them.
Whatever happened to not negotiating wtih terrorists? Even worse! They have murdered millions of their own country men and have proven they would stop at nothing to keep the power base in their family.
Think about it. There are thousands of top political seats secured to their own families. And therefore there is no chance of N. Korea opening up either because the whole top political seat and they are very acutely aware of this too will be sentenced for crimes against humanity.
So stop the bloody nonesense. And if you think humanitarianism, amnesty, all the free loving people have the privilage of having that which gives us conscience and moral fiber will be grown up North, forget it! Stop being so NAIVE!!!
They will never grow a conscience. Even with the collapse of the Iron curtain, how far have the former communist nations come in terms of freedom & democracy? it's been almost three decades.
Please use your b**** common sense and stop writing c*** CNN.
Get some real focused, objective reporters!
Most Korean idiots just don't get that true cause of the split was China which was the deciding factor.
Sure there was a power play between the Russians & the Americans with this piece of land but Koreans are fools if they believe that the deciding outcome of the North & South divide was not ultimately caused by China because of the selfish greed of Kim Il Sung for power.
Because in the end, it was he who requested China's help which saw the military equilibirum with the UN and the US.
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